Generation Economic Portfolio Analysis
EDCA has been retained by many companies in respect for completing generation energy production simulations and economic modeling. EDCA provides market pricing for revenue to both thermal and renewable electric energy technologies (including ancillary services). Over the last 10 years, EDCA has provided economic and financial analytical services on over 60,000 MW of project capacity. Over 150 separate engagements with generation owners and developers across all fuel and technology types.
Engagements typically include proforma cashflow analysis, bidding strategy efficacy/optimization, asset valuation and impairment testing, etc. This work has incorporated both deterministic and stochastic methodologies that have tested many assumptions. Assumptions can include bidding strategies, supply demand balance, fuel prices, hedge arrangements, emissions policy, transmission congestion, interregional import/export trade, and more.
EDCA has more recently enhanced the nature of its cogeneration and wind energy production modeling to account for the diversity in site import/export energy volumes resulting from the dynamic interplay between onsite generation and load as well as the geographical diversity of wind development that allows for varied levels of cross-correlation between wind farms over time. As part of its generation dispatch and economics work, EDCA has developed generation economic models, verified various inputs/assumptions, and completed numerous financial economic studies for prospective or exiting generation assets on behalf of client requests.
EDCA has extensive, demonstrated experience when it comes to modeling the output/revenue/cost/margin of thermal generation facilities in Alberta.
Examples:
- January 2016 – Canadian Power Holdings Ltd., a partial owner in the Sheerness Power Plant, engaged EDCA to provide fundamentals-based forecasts of the projected change of Sheerness units (#1 and 2) gross operating margin over the assets’ remaining life because of the then-NDP government’s announced Climate Leadership Plan. EDCA’s analysis was used to negotiate off-coal compensation between the provincial government and plant owners.
- June 2018 – ATCO Power Canada Ltd. (Canadian Utilities Ltd.) retained EDCA to value its Alberta generation portfolio in preparation for the sale of its assets. Part of said valuation included the Sheerness coal plants (and Battle River). EDCA’s valuation of ATCO’s portfolio was a cornerstone of the data room prepared for the acquisition.
- November 2018 – Energy Capital Partners retained EDCA to assist on the buy-side of the ATCO portfolio transaction. EDCA undertook further detailed modeling of ATCO’s assets, particular the coal plants such as Sheerness and Battle River, to enhance ECP’s understanding of the potential risks that could emerge as, for example, carbon policy evolved. EDCA’s analysis facilitated ECP’s analysis and ultimately purchase of ATCO’s portfolio of assets (coal and gas) and subsequently transitioned them to its Alberta operating company (Heartland Generation Ltd.).
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Generation Economic Portfolio Analysis | Alberta Energy Consulting Firm
